The crucial thing is not to panic

J’accuse Makerfield briefing

In 2019, in Makerfield, Labour won 45.1% of the vote with the Conservatives winning 34.4%. In 2026, Labour have won 55% of the vote, while Reform have won 34.49% of the vote. Labour have won a superlative victory in one of their safest seats with a famous candidate, with the option to choose the new Prime Minister on the ballot, and Reform are performing at around the level of prime Boris in a Northern seat while being thrashed by the press and various campaigning organisations while running a weak candidate with a spotty personal history.

The conclusion from this result should be that Reform is still performing incredibly well, and is the only plausible national party on the right of British politics. Reform began to suffer a dip in the polls from around September of 2025, falling from a high watermark of 34% in July of last year (FindOutNow 9-10 Jul) to the mid 20s in March (e.g FindOutNow 22-23 Apr). Reform appear to have recovered from this nadir and are now polling nationally in the high twenties and are occasionally cresting 30%.