The outcome currently being shilled for hard by the MSM and Woke Polls, Labour winning around 256 seats in a hung Parliament with Farage as LOTO, is far from the worst possible scenario. This government will be totally unpopular from the get-go, it will not even have the absurd, on-paper majority Starmer and Boris had hiding widespread apathy.
The public mood is that the country is a complete mess and people need to be sent home, this doesn’t always translate into straight Reform support but that is what, even quite liberal people now feel. A return of the most dated, centre-left, coalition of the Woke offering absolutely nothing new will be greeted by cold, hard fury. The main targets of this fury will be the minor right-wing parties who conspired to stop Reform winning an outright majority and you can expect the Conservatives and their tribute acts to vanish within 6 months in this timeline.
The danger some will raise is that the Woke Coalition will use their last gasp of power to implement policies designed to lock the Right out forever, the time for that was 2024. However rigged democracy is, there is still broad precedent that you need a large, confident majority to do something like change the constitution forever. If a ramshackle alliance of metro-mayors and Scottish nationalists tried to pass a law saying the Good Friday Agreement can only be repealed with the approval of the Cornish Assembly, Reform will face no obstacles scrapping it day one of government. Such a manoeuvre would also take two years of Constitutional Lawyering to pull off: many, normal centre-left, people in the House of Lords are opposed to it in principle. The idea of a confidence-and-supply government creating 500 peers is just too absurd for words.
The Lib Dems, despite their ridiculous image, do in fact have a YIMBY, free market wing influential among their aides who will complain about Burnham giving all over-65 football fans free Oasis tickets for life. The Greens will sink Burnham’s only genuinely radical policy, drilling in the North Sea, and will likely start to mimic the anti-A.I language of the DSA, thus dooming the Soft Left’s panacea for all inefficiencies in the welfare state. The only ace up the Mayor of Britain’s sleeve is a massively expensive, not particularly popular, long, messy legal procedure to give his various Potemkin governments a veto over 10 Downing Street which will use up ½ of his term and be about 6 months old when Reform can abolish it.
The only thing to really be worried about is if some sort of major war breaks out during The Mayoralty and Burnham uses it as an excuse to cancel elections, bring on board the Tories to form a ‘national government’ and drafts 2 million African migrants as soldiers-to-citizens. This really shouldn’t be underestimated. Zelensky has set a precedent that it is okay, really, to become a Dictator if you are at war and even without a formal end to elections, the increased security powers will legitimatise currently greyzone tactics like spying on Reformers, arresting dissidents and censoring the internet. Our hope, as ever lies in the Greens and Based Zacko vetoing another seven trillion bonus for the Airborne Scots Naval Grenadiers so that Britain simply cannot participate in the conflict. The Greens are by far the least malign coalition partners for Labour and we should do all in our power to help them against the separatists.
The outcome of Reform winning less seats than the Conservatives or Labour strikes me as intuitively unlikely, given Kemi’s inability to win a single council seat outside of London. Nonetheless, we should prepare for it and recognise that this, also, is no devastating loss so long as Reform stick to their guns and rule out any coalition within 1st hour of exit poll dropping. Just be calm and look at the maths. If the Conservatives and Reform, without any kind of agreement, simply by following their own individual whip-lines, vote against the government on any law, that law will not pass. It simply isn’t possible for Labour to govern in this situation unless they do a continental ‘grand coalition’ with the Conservatives. This government will not last more than 2 years, it will be like Callaghan’s in 1979. When the next election comes, Reform voters will stick with Reform for its loyalty to them, while Conservative voters will come to realise Reform is the only chance of stability.
It is essential that Reform are not frightened by the likes of Allison Pearson howling about how ‘this is UK’s last election’ and we need to ‘unite the Right.’ The potential harms a rainbow coalition of madness can inflict on Britain are far milder than those a Conservative Party can inflict upon its senior coalition partner. A coalition with the Conservatives means spending 4 years with unpleasant, incompetent, backstabbing people who will see their entire mission in government as sabotaging Reform. It means taking on the 300+ Conservative Peers appointed since Cameron, not just the rump of the Parliamentary Party. Even if they only have 15 seats, the Conservatives have what amounts to a giant free press office in the form of 4 broadsheet papers which act as in-house publicists, giving them a 2:1 advantage when it comes to briefing and story generation. The absolute first thing the Conservatives will try to force your hand on is a massive, unaffordable rise in defence spending to prepare for a majority-killing war. They will then create a series of scandals about “anti-Semitism” (not wanting to join any M.E war without context) and Putinism targeting independent-minded Reform staffers and ministers. They will then drag their feet about mass deportations, allowing various figures of “One Nation” to launch windbaggy attacks in Parliament whenever a Woke is bopped over the head by plod, while telling you that ‘this is all putting off the voters; people just want that Sense of control.’ It is essential, in both scenarios that a coalition with the Conservatives is rejected a priori.
Given this outcome is even being discussed as likely, it is worthwhile, without too much acrimony as they might turn things around, contemplate what Reform is getting wrong? The answer is, undoubtedly, weak social media.
Nigel Farage has less followers on TikTok than Donald Trump Jr, a man who holds no political office and Pokimane, a woman who films herself playing video games. The party has lost control of X, where, as Elon prepares to open-source the algorithm, the excuse that Restore is being boosted by horrid Boer bots looks less and less likely. Rather, Reform’s xdotcom people are just simply not as good as Sargon of Akkad and YoungBob. The party is basically invisible on Facebook, where most of Reform’s voter base live. The policies are good but nobody sees the policies and the social media make no effort to create a coherent ‘story’ out of disparate policy announcements. You can only do an offensive, Donald Trump strategy where you alienate the MSM if you are 100%, watertight confident your social media can make up for it. Donald Trump’s twitter could. I don’t think even the social media people themselves would say Reform’s can.
Reform have the money to hire a team of data scientists and build an automated content creation and targeting machine which would make Cambridge Analytica look like the Fighting Tremaire. Instead, they spend this on people who believe the key to winning elections is in ‘influencers’, ‘viral moments’ and other relics of an early 2010s paradigm which already obsolete by 2016. But lets look on the bright side.
Nonetheless, the possibility of Reform winning a flat majority is being severely underestimated by both the party and its critics. I believe people are properly angry. I don’t think the victimisation of ‘Honest George’ Cottrell matters to people who watched Gordon Brown admit he knew children were being trafficked through Heathrow Airport. I don’t think ‘Rupert’ will cut through after a month of GE campaigning when it dawns on people they are voting for the next PM, not sending a ‘message’ about the issue de jour in a byelection. A Reform government with a 5-15 majority would in some cases be worse than a spell as LOTO preluding a landslide. It would start to feel the inevitable incumbency bias stalking all non-Meritocracies in the 21st century much faster than otherwise; the party has not yet purged itself of its Toryistic elements in social media and vital Technology is yet to be completed.
But it is essential for morale to treat every GE as decisive, therefore, here are some Top Tips which I am sure other people have thought of but should describe the basic ‘structure’ of the campaign:
First 10 days, Farage should tour the length of the English channel coast, speaking, like Trump in stadia – not just ‘videos’, backed up by his cabinet on the historic betrayal of immigration, he should stop by in Piddington and respectfully listen to the people there’s concerns accepting they might be rude to him personally, he should, and this is dangerous but I think necessary, address the people currently blockading Dover at risk they might initially heckle him. It is essential there is more direct appeals to the mob rather than xdotcom videos nobody actually watches.
Day 10-12, Farage makes a direct beeline for Manchester, ideally on day Burnham is doing something idiotic and trite there, he should book the Manchester Arena and call the event ‘Day of Remembrance’ with obvious connotation, after moment of silence for the terrorist victims, he will then invite every grooming gang survivor from all the inquiries on stage to speak for 10 minutes individually about their ordeal before Farage ascends stage to remorselessly attack Burnham for the grooming gangs, specifically naming those which took place in Manchester while was mayor. This rally cannot have the usual, Dave T.V, aesthetics: it must be sombre, terrifying and majesterial, choreographed by people who attend Bayreuth every year. The stadium is plunged into darkness, a single beam of light falls on Farage, a woman dressed in white carries a broadsword to Wagnerian overtures, millions of people light disposable candles…. Parsifal….
If steps 1 and 2 succeed I think ‘Rupert’ making videos in his conservatory will become a thing of the past by this point. I do not believe the chud faction will actually be able to sustain the illusion of being disappointed with a massive, popular, big-boy party running around saying they will hang the rapists with.
If there is time before the debate Farage should make a video he’s made many times before where he visits his Grandad’s grave in Belgium only this time he should speak about how generations of his family have fought for Britain, how deeply he is personally hurt by allegations he isn’t loyal to Britain and finally say that the memory of this sacrifice means he will never, ever send British boys to die unless the country’s interests are directly threatened. Farage, wisely, doesn’t talk much about his family and this is partly why the sleaze allegations work, nobody knows anything else about him but his interest in military history is one of few hobbies where he has shown himself willing to be a bit more Who do you think You Are. He should then cut to all the special forces who are being locked up by H.R courts.
Debates would happen around this time. Having done enough chud-bait in lead up to the debates, while deportations should be endlessly re-emphasised to produce video content for reposting, the leadership debates are fundamentally a chance to speak more about Reform’s economic and social platform. Having rustled their jimmies for the last two weeks, Burnham will spend his time raving about Fascists and Glorious Red Army victories while Nigel can calmly talk about lowering your Bills, Kemi will do her spiel about being good on the economy and Nigel can say he’s increasing personal allowance to back workers over trust fund kids and the Tories wrecked the economy with lockdown (something no political leader has talked about, ever but explains 90% of what’s wrong with the country since 2020).
You should expect, around this point, for the media to release the financial information about Reform donors they are currently sitting on in the misapprehension it is this damning ace-in-the-hole. Farage should call a press conference on ‘corruption’ and announce he will imprison Prince Andrew and Peter Mandelson as Prime Minister and then leave without explanation. The party’s social media accounts should prepare a week of content about Labour party councillors who are convicted paedophiles, Lord Ali and Lord Mandelson to fill this gap. They should be doing this now. Instead of making video games.
Instead of dropping key policies at last minute, the last 3 days should rather be a hectic schedule of giant rallies as Trump does, put out very shocking stuff (‘The Rally of Remembrance’) early on and let the media amplify it for full campaign cycle.